Hit chance¶

Hit chance is the probability that a swing connects instead of being dodged. It's resolved before any damage rolls.

The formula¶

Lyonspyre uses classic hit-chance math, with PvM-only specialty and talent bonuses layered on top:

Hit chance

chance = (atkSkill + 50) / ((defSkill + 50) × 2)
       + SpecialtyHitBonus%/100
       + ArcheryVsHinderedBonus%/100      (archery only)
       ─ FencingCrippleDefenseScalar      (PvM melee only, scales defSkill)

That value then feeds a skill check, which means:

A hit at chance >= 1.0 is an auto-success and still triggers a skill-gain check.
A miss costs you no resource - you simply don't connect.
atkSkill is the weapon's primary skill (Swordsmanship / Macing / Fencing / Archery / Wrestling for fists).
defSkill is whatever skill the defender's currently-equipped weapon uses - usually the same skill they'd swing with. Unarmed defenders use Wrestling.

Base chance table (pre-bonus)¶

A 100 weapon-skill attacker against a defender of the listed weapon-skill, no talents or specialties:

Defender skill	Base chance
30	93.75% (150 / 160)
60	68.18% (150 / 220)
90	53.57% (150 / 280)
100	50.00% (150 / 300)
120	44.12% (150 / 340)

The formula is symmetric: at equal skill the chance is exactly 50%. In this range, each +30 attacker skill over the defender buys roughly +10%, and each +30 of defender skill over the attacker costs about the same.

General-purpose attackers¶

For an attacker at lower skill levels:

Attacker	vs def-30	vs def-60	vs def-90	vs def-100
50	62.50%	45.45%	35.71%	33.33%
75	78.12%	56.82%	44.64%	41.67%
100	93.75%	68.18%	53.57%	50.00%
120	100.0%*	77.27%	60.71%	56.67%

* There is no upper clamp on Lyonspyre, so a high-skill-vs-low-skill chance above 1.0 still passes CheckSkill automatically and gains skill at the cap.

Bonus sources¶

Lyonspyre layers these on top of the base formula:

Source	When
Specialty hit-chance	Returns percentage points (e.g. `5` = +5%). Always queried.
Archery vs. Hindered	Per-rank percentage points; only fires when the defender is hinder-tagged (PvM only).
Fencing Cripple	PvM-only; multiplies defender skill by a 0-1 scalar. 8% per stack (max 24% defense reduction).
Tier accuracy on the talent ladder	See Dungeon Talents.

Hit-chance sources that do NOT apply

A lot of online games pile extra modifiers into hit chance: an AttackChance item property, Divine Fury, Animal Form (wolf / kitsune +20%), Hit Lower Attack / Defense, weapon-ability accuracy bonuses, special moves, Force Arrow, Block, Surprise Attack, and defender-side Discordance. None of these fire on Lyonspyre.

Discordance does affect the swing-speed formula but not hit chance - that's by design, not something we've stripped.

Auto-hit / auto-miss¶

There's no upper clamp: a 120-skill attacker vs. a 30-skill defender passes CheckSkill ~100% of the time.
There's no 2% lower clamp either. If ourValue is tiny or theirValue is huge, chance can fall all the way to zero.
CheckSkill always rolls - so even at a calculated 95% you can still miss the 1 in 20.